Show me your metal
Delivering a low-carbon future
Opinion
Sustainable Minerals Institute Director Professor Neville Plint outlines the transformation required for the mining industry to help deliver a low-carbon future.
The findings in the sixth report from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were very clear: the earth could be just 10 years away from heating by more than 1.5°C – a threshold beyond which even more serious and frequent fires, droughts, floods and cyclones are expected to wreak havoc on humanity.
As the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) gets underway in Glasgow on October 31, discussions on the need to reduce emissions and move to a low-carbon future will be key.
But the pathway from where we are now to the low-carbon economy of the future is not always clear. Just how do we power a growing world population that is hungry for data, resources and freedom from poverty?
Sustainable Minerals Institute Director Professor Neville Plint.
Sustainable Minerals Institute Director Professor Neville Plint.
While technology and innovation can provide solutions for decarbonising our lives, they require more metals and minerals than we currently have and, therefore, more mining. Thus, mining is essential to the delivery of a low-carbon economy, but a massive transformation is required for the industry to deliver in a sustainable way.
As Director of UQ’s Sustainable Minerals Institute (SMI), I am privileged to work with experts whose aims are to understand the nature of this transformation and to develop the necessary tools and solutions for the challenges facing the industry. And they are significant – in terms of what we mine, where we mine and how we mine.
What we mine
The advance of low-carbon energy technologies will drive increasing demand for energy-transition metals, or critical minerals as they are also known. These include cobalt, manganese, rare earth elements, lithium and vanadium. The metals are used in products such as electric vehicles, batteries and wind turbines; products that are important tools in helping reduce energy and emissions.
Using the International Energy Agency’s net zero emissions projection as a basis, SMI researchers calculated peak global demand for energy-transition metals as a percentage of current production. It’s no surprise that lithium, cobalt and rare earths emerge as requiring more than double the current production.
The projected peak demand associated with global demand for low-carbon energy technologies (kilo tonnes). Source: adapted from Lèbre et al (2020), based on median values
The projected peak demand as a percentage of current global production. Source: adapted from Lèbre et al (2020), based on median values
Where we mine
These energy-transition metals occur plentifully in the ground, which is good, but we need to extract them in a way that minimises the significant stress mining places on the people and environments surrounding their location. SMI researchers raise valid concerns about the impact of the mining process on communities and ecosystems. As well as contributing to regional economies, mining can disadvantage some of the most vulnerable in our society, increasing inequality and fostering conflict.
These impacts give rise to environment, social and governance (ESG) issues. In recent years ESG concerns have also become important for financial investors. It’s not enough for mining companies to focus on production, they must also show how they are working positively with local communities, how they are mining responsibly and sustainably, and how they are contributing to a low-carbon economy. SMI researchers found that 84 per cent of platinum resources, and 70 per cent of cobalt resources, are located in areas vulnerable to high- ESG risks.
Some might suggest an alternative is to secure these new energy-transition metals from recycling and reprocessing, and indeed there is much that can be done to improve the recovery of metals. But we cannot negate the need to continue to mine.
Researchers at Yale University examined a set of well-regarded international scenarios in terms of the demand, supply and energy implications over the period between 2010 and 2050. What they found was that 100–300 per cent increases in copper, lead and zinc demand (depending on the scenario) could not be delivered through recycling alone.
So, we need to look carefully at how we mine.
The projected peak demand associated with global demand for low-carbon energy technologies (kilo tonnes). Source: adapted from Lèbre et al (2020), based on median values
The projected peak demand associated with global demand for low-carbon energy technologies (kilo tonnes). Source: adapted from Lèbre et al (2020), based on median values
The projected peak demand as a percentage of current global production. Source: adapted from Lèbre et al (2020), based on median values
The projected peak demand as a percentage of current global production. Source: adapted from Lèbre et al (2020), based on median values
How we mine
A trend well underway is the use of innovation to mitigate greenhouse gas intensity. There are many opportunities for decarbonisation, most obviously a reduction in dependency on fossil-based fuels. Innovation also offers potential new ways of extracting metals more efficiently with less waste, disruption and energy. Processing methods such as the extraction of metals from the ground using plants and microbes are in their infancy, but the chemical and biological leaching of metals from mine wastes is well established in mining operations.
Beyond the mining industry's capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, resource extraction is itself threatened by the effects of climate change (rainfall variability, extreme events and changes to temperature patterns). It’s inevitable that mines will also need to adapt to a changing climate.
Where climate adaptation is considered, it’s generally in the context of increasing the resilience of the mining operation to extremes of climate. But the host community is vulnerable to both extremes of climate and to the mining operation itself. What does a mining community look like once mining has finished or operations are shut down?
Very few (fewer than 10 per cent) ‘closed’ mines around the world have been repurposed. SMI researchers analysed 141 cases (out of 1804) and found that without government intervention, establishing vibrant post-mining economic activity is very challenging despite the obvious benefits for host communities. Nevertheless there are encouraging signs for life beyond mining – such as emerging partnerships with local indigenous rangers which enable them to continue their millennial long practice of caring for county.
It will be interesting to see the outcomes of the Climate Change Conference and if decisions and resolutions reached will be accepted by all countries. It certainly appears as though society can’t wait to act on climate change, and mining – once part of the problem – could be part of the solution in achieving a low-carbon future.
Sustainable Minerals Institute research
SMI research integrates the expertise of production, environmental, social science, and health and safety specialists to deliver sustainable resource development and train the next generation of industry and community leaders.
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