An image of former US president Donald Trump with the words 'Trump 2024' written on the image.

Image: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Image: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

UQ experts analyse the impact of another Trump presidential bid

By Zoe McDonald

In front of a roaring crowd at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, former US President Donald Trump announced his campaign for the 2024 presidency on 15 November 2022 (GMT-5).

"America's comeback starts right now," Trump said.

It comes after weeks of heavy hinting at a presidential bid in the lead up to the US midterm elections on 8 November, which have seen the Republicans approaching a majority in the House of Representatives.

As of 16 November (AEST), the Republicans only need one seat to secure control of the House.

Key points

  • Polarisation in US politics is pushing the Democrats and Republicans further apart ideologically.
  • Support of Trump goes beyond socio-economic factors – it relies heavily on identity, and a fear of being left behind culturally.
  • A Trump presidential bid is concerning due to the ongoing claims of election fraud and other anti-democratic views.
  • Tackling the political divide will require patience and listening.

However, the midterms weren't quite the ‘red wave’ that was anticipated, with many of the Trump-backed candidates underperforming in their respective races.

If the Democrats lose the House of Representatives – which is on track to happen – it will be more difficult for the Biden administration to pass legislation leading up to the 2024 presidential elections. 

And, with a Republican House, the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 capitol attack will likely be ditched

Contact sat down with UQ experts to analyse the midterm results and Trump’s 2024 presidential bid.

What are the midterms and why are they important?

Congressional elections occur every 2 years and are called ‘midterms’ when they happen during the middle of a 4-year presidential term. 

These elections decide the composition of Congress, the legislative body of the federal US government, which – like Australia – is composed of a lower and upper house: the House of Representatives and the US Senate.

Prior to the midterms, which kicked off on 8 November 2022, the Democrats held a majority in both houses, as well as the presidency.

The Republicans are now expected to take control of the House, but the Democrats – against predictions – have retained control of the Senate.

According to Dr Adam Hannah from UQ’s School of Political Science and International Studies, the Republicans' predicted majority in the House will impact Biden’s ability to progress policy during the rest of his presidency.

An image of US President Joe Biden, standing on a podium in front of American flags, addressing the media ahead of the midterm elections

US President Joe Biden addresses the media ahead of the midterm elections. Image: Michael A. McCoy/Getty Images

US President Joe Biden addresses the media ahead of the midterm elections. Image: Michael A. McCoy/Getty Images

“Because legislation needs to pass both houses, a Republican victory in the House would essentially make it more difficult for the Biden administration to pass any law, because the parties are so polarised,” Dr Hannah said.

“Unlike Australia – where you’re expected to vote along party lines – individual members of Congress can vote the way they want to personally on different issues.

“However, the polarisation between the parties makes any collaboration increasingly difficult.”

It’s important to note that the outcomes of the midterms aren’t unusual.

Since 1934, only 3 Presidents have seen their parties gain seats in the midterms.

And, under Trump’s presidency, the Republicans lost 42 seats in the midterms and control of the House.

Image: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

An image of Donald Trump addressing the US Congress in 2017.

Why is US politics becoming more divided?

Polarisation – or the divergence of political attitudes towards ideological extremes – is being felt broadly across US politics and on both sides, according to Dr Frank Mols from UQ’s School of Political Science and International Studies.  

“On the conservative side, we see a harkening back to traditional beliefs, such as a focus on Christian values, when maybe 20 years ago voter attitudes were more relaxed,” Dr Mols said.

“But on the progressive side, we also see a hardening of political views, with more radical left-wing parties pushing minority rights issues further and further.

“What you have then is a table tennis match between two sides that are adopting more radical positions in reaction to each other.”
An image of Abortion-rights and anti-abortion advocates confronting each other in front of the US Supreme Court in Washington DC.

Abortion-rights and anti-abortion advocates confront each other in front of the US Supreme Court in Washington DC in May 2022. Image: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Abortion-rights and anti-abortion advocates confront each other in front of the US Supreme Court in Washington DC in May 2022. Image: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Professor Katharine Gelber from UQ’s School of Political Science and International Studies said that Trump’s success in promoting his claims of election fraud and conspiracy theories have emboldened some party members to adopt similar values in their campaigning.

“The Republican party is a shadow of what it used to be,” Professor Gelber said.

“[There are individuals] promoting violence against opponents, lying and cheating, promoting laws to stop people from voting, seeking to control women’s bodies, and banning books in schools and universities.

“While at the same time, they talk about freedom. But it’s a freedom that scares me because they talk about freedom while acting in anti-democratic ways.

"[For example], the Republican national committee described the January 6 riots as 'legitimate political discourse'.

"That can only be 'legitimate political discourse' if we have lost perspective on how to conduct politics through peaceful means.

"Parliaments were historically invented to settle disputes through talk – parley is 'to talk' in Old English. That talk might be rancorous, divisive and unpleasant, but it was how disputes were resolved.

"When people now describe an insurrection as legitimate political discourse, we are in a perilous moment."

An image of Pro-Trump protesters gathering in front of the US Capitol Building on 6 January 2021.

Pro-Trump protesters gather in front of the US Capitol Building on 6 January 2021. Image: Jon Cherry/Getty Images

An image of Trump supporters clashing with police and security forces as they try to storm the US Capitol on 6 January 2021.

Trump supporters clash with police and security forces as they try to storm the US Capitol on 6 January 2021. Image: Brent Stirton/Getty Images

An image of Pro-Trump protesters gathering in front of the US Capitol Building on 6 January 2021.

Pro-Trump protesters gather in front of the US Capitol Building on 6 January 2021. Image: Jon Cherry/Getty Images

An image of Trump supporters clashing with police and security forces as they try to storm the US Capitol on 6 January 2021.

Trump supporters clash with police and security forces as they try to storm the US Capitol on 6 January 2021. Image: Brent Stirton/Getty Images

Breaking down the ‘Trump factor’: why do people love him?

According to Professor Gelber, there’s several key socio-economic factors priming groups of American society to become ardent Trump supporters.

Alongside the decades-long plateau in living standards for the average American, Professor Gelber said there is a failure of neoliberalism – the ideology that dominated American politics for generations – to address large social challenges like climate change and increasing inequality of wealth.

“Trump didn’t manufacture Trumpism,” she said.

“He built on a set of social conditions, that combined with his fragile ego and lust for power, to build a persona that is flawed but also perilous to American democracy.

“He used that disenfranchisement – which exists in many liberal democracies across the world – and the idea that politics does not offer solutions to problems, and he manipulated it."

This has helped create a following of captive and loyal listeners.

“When people like Trump have previously achieved power, the voter base has followed what the leader says, even when the facts directly contradict the leader’s language.

“In those moments, we are in deep trouble because the truth no longer matters.”

Dr Mols said there is some misunderstanding about who Trump’s voter base is, as the media focusses on what’s become known as the ‘losers of globalisation’.

“Passionate Trump supporters can be found at all levels of society. In fact, 'Trumpism' is as much a socio-economic story as it is a cultural backlash story, whereby people feel left behind – not economically, but culturally,” he said.

“It’s more to do with coming from a more conservative, often more rural background, where so-called ‘woke agendas’ are not automatically endorsed.

“For those people, there’s the feeling that this is going too fast. That this is not 'our' America.”

Dr Mols said this sense of identity plays a powerful role in how people vote.

“For example, if you have a ‘shootout’ between economic self-interest and identity-driven voting behaviour, usually identity overrides rationalistic cost-benefit considerations,” he said.

“That’s important to know, otherwise you can’t explain why a lot of people would vote for a party that takes away their benefits. For example, why would poor Americans vote for someone who says they’ll get rid of Obamacare?

“However, to say people are irrational or crazy would be to draw the wrong conclusion, because they’re driven by eagerness to express their identity and sense of belonging."

But how do the legal issues Trump is facing – including the Select Committee on the Attack on the US Capitol on 6 January – affect another bid for one of the most powerful offices in the world?

Members of the House Select Committee to Investigate the 6 January attack on the US Capitol vote unanimously to subpoena former US president Donald Trump.

Members of the House Select Committee to Investigate the 6 January attack on the US Capitol vote unanimously to subpoena former US president Donald Trump. Image: Drew Angerer/Getty Images.

Members of the House Select Committee to Investigate the 6 January attack on the US Capitol vote unanimously to subpoena former US president Donald Trump. Image: Drew Angerer/Getty Images.

Dr Hannah said it’s unlikely this will have a significant effect, particularly for rusted-on Trump voters.

“By the time we get to the next presidential election, the 6 January insurrection will be almost four years ago. The country will have moved onto other issues,” Dr Hannah said.

“Generally, I wonder about the staying power of scandal – and we’ve seen this with Trump before.”

Image: Isaac Brekken/Getty Images

An image of Donald Trump addressing his supporters at a rally. Trump and the supporters are wearing red 'Make America Great Again' hats.

What would a second Trump term mean for the US, and for Australia?

Trump has always peddled a different role for America as a global citizen than other US governments – which will impact the foreign policy of its allies, like Australia.

“[Trump’s criticism of the Bush administration in the 2016 primaries] was an interesting strategy, because it was trying to do away with that post-Cold-War consensus of America as the world’s policeman spreading democracy,” Dr Hannah said.

“It’s also interesting to compare Trump to someone like Ronald Reagen – the president at the end of the Cold War – who always portrayed an incredibly hopeful message in the dual-power world where America was ‘good’.

“Comparatively, Trump’s message has mostly been about fear. And at this moment, that has been what has resonated.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel deliberates with US president Donald Trump during the second day of the G7 summit on June 9, 2018.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel deliberates with US president Donald Trump during the second day of the G7 summit on June 9, 2018. Image: Jesco Denzel /Bundesregierung via Getty Images

German Chancellor Angela Merkel deliberates with US president Donald Trump during the second day of the G7 summit on June 9, 2018. Image: Jesco Denzel /Bundesregierung via Getty Images

Professor Gelber believes the prevalence of anti-democratic behaviour and language by Trump is also a major concern both within the US and the world beyond.

For example, nearly half of the Republicans on the midterm ballots denied the results of the 2020 Presidential election, despite the evidence otherwise.

“What we’re seeing right now is a battle over the soul of American democracy. And it’s not clear where that battle will end up,” Professor Gelber said.

Dr Mols said this battle was also related to the scale of conspiracy theories in the US and the fact that some political leaders have begun to endorse these ideas openly.

“You come to the point where legal issues, or subverting the course of justice, can all be explained away by saying it’s part of some grand conspiracy theory.”

Dr Mols said overcoming this will rely on listening, and providing the individuals and groups immersed in these ideas with the space to self-reflect.

“It’s not about telling people that they’re wrong, or they don’t understand,” he said.

“Change won’t happen as a result of outcry on the Democrat side – it will only happen if moderate Republicans persuade fellow Republicans that democracy is at stake.

"Hopefully the Republican party can save itself from populism and become once again a normal right-wing government that engages constructively in debates about policy alternatives."

President Biden has also confirmed he is considering running for a second term.

Dr Mols said it's interesting to note that Biden's and Trump's approval ratings at the midterm elections during their respective presidencies were almost equal – sitting around 38 per cent.

"Trump was actually remarkably unpopular at the midterms during his presidency, but so is Biden. Very few presidents in history have had such low approval ratings.

"That might be a sign of more general voter fatigue with politicians over-promising and dramatising issues, which we've seen so much in recent years."

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