Unpacking the
great price hike

An illustration of a trolley full of groceries with an upwards arrow representing rising prices.

Image: ink drop/Adobe Stock

Image: ink drop/Adobe Stock

As the cost of living continues to climb, Editor-at-Large at Canstar.com.au, Today Show money expert and UQ alum Effie Zahos (Bachelor of Economics '90) shares her tips on how to set up an inflation-proof budget.

In 1982, you could have filled up your car for just 38.11 cents per litre (super grade), had two 600ml bottles of milk delivered to your door for just 73 cents and bought a loaf of bread from the supermarket for just 80 cents.

Today, unleaded petrol has dipped over the $2 per litre mark (despite a temporary 22.1 cent excise cut), 1 litre of milk will cost you over $2 and a loaf of sliced white bread will set you back between $2.50 and $3.

The average price of essential groceries 40 years ago compared to today.

Even when you compare wages in 1982 to today’s wages, it's still an expensive time to be living. With inflation tipped to peak at an annual rate of 7.75 per cent by the December quarter of 2022, it looks like we're in for several more months of pain. 

The average price of essential groceries 40 years ago compared to today.

August job numbers paint a picture of a very tight labor market, but wage growth continues to be soft, and any gains are certainly not broad based.

Workers will only start to see real growth in their salary once inflation stabilises.

Why are things so expensive?

It basically comes down to four things:

  1. the pandemic
  2. geo-political unrest
  3. the weather
  4. profits

All four have played havoc on supply-chains and, in turn, have impacted the end cost of goods and services.

The pandemic cut supply chains drastically; lockdowns enforced shifts in our spending habits, limiting supply on pandemic favourites such as groceries, home-office equipment, homewares and games. As supply of new items fell, the prices of equivalent products in the second-hand economy – like dining tables, bikes and gaming consoles – were soaring.

Fuel prices are through the roof, thanks in part to the war in Ukraine, while floods have substantially impacted the supply of fruit and vegetables.

Price hikes have impacted just about every part of the production distribution process.

Essential shopping list (1982)  Milk (600ml delivered): 73 cents Bread (680g): 80 cents Dozen Eggs (55g): $1.60 Bananas (1kg): $1.04 Instant coffee (150g): $2.88 Toilet paper (2x550g rolls): 88 cents Petrol (super): 38.11 cents/litre  Source: Commonwealth of Australia, June quarter

The average price of essential groceries 40 years ago compared to today.

The average price of essential groceries 40 years ago compared to today.

Essential shopping list (2022)  Milk (1 litre): $2.60 Bread (680g): $2.50 Dozen Eggs: $4.90 Bananas (each): 81 cents Instant coffee (150g): $11.00 Toilet paper (9 pack): $8.50 Petrol (unleaded): 203 cents/litre  Source: Woolworths.com.au/Globalpetrolprices.com

The average price of essential groceries 40 years ago compared to today.

The average price of essential groceries 40 years ago compared to today.

How to set up an inflation-proof budget?

When it comes to the rising cost of living, a big issue is that price hikes have been concentrated in non-discretionary items such as food, fuel, housing and healthcare.

Inflation on these goods and services are 7.6 per cent higher, compared to 4 per cent higher for discretionary items.

So, while you might be able to cut down on eating out, limiting your subscriptions or giving up holidays, you can't switch off your energy, stop pumping fuel into your car or give up your home.

What you can do, though, is make sure you’re not paying any more than you have to on your ‘non-discretionary’ household bills.

Take the time to review your household bills because, collectively, they can make a huge difference to your overall personal inflation rate.

Can you cut costs?

Chances are there are a handful of regular bills that are wolfing down your pay packet. This is where you need to take a good look at whether you can get a better deal, or maybe give a particular service the flick altogether.

Were you guilty of adding on a few too many streaming services during lockdown? If yes, now may be the time to give a few the flick.

There are so many simple steps you can take to reduce your expenses. Big-ticket items like your home loan are where the big savings are, but even small savings can add up.

According to Canstar’s cost-of-living tool, you could be saving around $11,000 per year by simply swapping your regular household bills to either the cheapest in the market or the best-valued.

Can you earn more?

Don’t neglect the other side of the ledger – your income. When it comes to making extra cash, the share economy offers plenty of opportunities.

Whether you decide to rent out your spare room, share your car, pet-sit or sell some items around the home, you can boost the money coming in.

According to Gumtree’s 2022 Trading in the Circular Economy Report, Aussies stand to make about $6964 per household from their unwanted items. The report reveals 86 per cent of Australians have unwanted and unused items they could sell, with around 21 items per household.

Set your formula

Once you’ve gone through your regular bills, it pays to take a look at your budget. There’s no shortage of budget formulas to help you manage your budget. A popular option is the 70:20:10 plan. Here’s how it works.

Step 1

Divide your money between:

  • 70 per cent for everyday-living costs (rent or home loan, transport, clothing, food and utilities)
  • 20 per cent for saving (don’t skimp on savings)
  • 10 per cent for splurging.

Step 2

Set up some buckets. Instead of lumping your ‘everyday-living’ expenses into a single bucket, open multiple buckets (accounts) and give each of them a nickname. You might have one account for school fees, another for household bills and so on. The same goes for savings. The 20 per cent can be further broken down between savings buckets – 5 per cent can go to your rainy-day bucket, 10 per cent to your holiday bucket and 5 per cent to the ‘get-ahead’ bucket.

Using buckets within buckets makes it easier to achieve multiple goals. You can allocate a set sum to each bucket, track your progress and fine-tune your budget for each target.

What if you’re living from pay to pay?

If you want to escape the vicious cycle of living from pay to pay, then you need to switch to a bare-bones budget.

A bare-bones budget takes out non-essential items, such as subscriptions, entertainment, personal care – like manicures and holidays – and focuses on just the essentials, like food, clothing and shelter.

Bare-bones budgets are not fun to live on, but the good news is you only need to do this for a few months. During this time, be sure to direct the savings you make from omitting non-essential items into an emergency fund. Once you build off this buffer of savings you can then revert to your normal budget.

Image: Editor-at-Large at Canstar.com.au, Today Show money expert and UQ alum Effie Zahos.

An image of Editor-at-Large at Canstar.com.au, Today Show money expert and UQ alum Effie Zahos.

How to set up an inflation-proof budget?

When it comes to the rising cost of living, a big issue is that price hikes have been concentrated in non-discretionary items such as food, fuel, housing and healthcare.

Inflation on these goods and services are 7.6 per cent higher, compared to 4 per cent higher for discretionary items.

So, while you might be able to cut down on eating out, limiting your subscriptions or giving up holidays, you can't switch off your energy, stop pumping fuel into your car or give up your home.

What you can do, though, is make sure you’re not paying any more than you have to on your ‘non-discretionary’ household bills.

Take the time to review your household bills because, collectively, they can make a huge difference to your overall personal inflation rate.

Can you cut costs?

Chances are there are a handful of regular bills that are wolfing down your pay packet. This is where you need to take a good look at whether you can get a better deal, or maybe give a particular service the flick altogether.

Were you guilty of adding on a few too many streaming services during lockdown? If yes, now may be the time to give a few the flick.

There are so many simple steps you can take to reduce your expenses. Big ticket items like your home loan are where the big savings are, but even small savings can add up.

According to Canstar’s cost-of-living tool, you could be saving around $11,000 per year by simply swapping your regular household bills to either the cheapest in the market or the best-valued.

Can you earn more?

Don’t neglect the other side of the ledger – your income. When it comes to making extra cash, the share economy offers plenty of opportunities.

Whether you decide to rent out your spare room, share your car, pet-sit or sell some items around the home, you can boost the money coming in.

According to Gumtree’s 2022 Trading in the Circular Economy Report, Aussies stand to make about $6964 per household from their unwanted items. The report reveals 86 per cent of Australians have unwanted and unused items they could sell, with around 21 items per household.

Set your formula

Once you’ve gone through your regular bills, it pays to take a look at your budget. There’s no shortage of budget formulas to help you manage your budget. A popular option is the 70:20:10 plan. Here’s how it works.

Step 1

Divide your money between:

  • 70 per cent for everyday-living costs (rent or home loan, transport, clothing, food and utilities)
  • 20 per cent for saving (don’t skimp on savings)
  • 10 per cent for splurging.

Step 2

Set up some buckets. Instead of lumping your ‘everyday-living’ expenses into a single bucket, open multiple buckets (accounts) and give each of them a nickname. You might have one account for school fees, another for household bills and so on. The same goes for savings. The 20 per cent can be further broken down between savings buckets – 5 per cent can go to your rainy-day bucket, 10 per cent to your holiday bucket and 5 per cent to the ‘get-ahead’ bucket.

Using buckets within buckets makes it easier to achieve multiple goals. You can allocate a set sum to each bucket, track your progress and fine-tune your budget for each target.

What if you’re living from pay to pay?

If you want to escape the vicious cycle of living from pay to pay, then you need to switch to a bare-bones budget.

A bare-bones budget takes out non-essential items, such as subscriptions, entertainment, personal care – like manicures and holidays – and focuses on just the essentials, like food, clothing and shelter.

Bare-bones budgets are not fun to live on, but the good news is you only need to do this for a few months. During this time, be sure to direct the savings you make from omitting non-essential items into an emergency fund. Once you build off this buffer of savings you can then revert to your normal budget.

Image: Editor-at-Large at Canstar.com.au, Today Show money expert and UQ alum Effie Zahos.

An image of Editor-at-Large at Canstar.com.au, Today Show money expert and UQ alum Effie Zahos.

How do you handle rising interest rates on your home loan?  

To date, we have seen four consecutive rate hikes. While many households may have managed to juggle these hikes, as rates continue to rise, more and more households will be under financial pressure.

There’s also a big concern for homeowners who are about to roll off their fixed-rate loans.

According to ANZ, around half the current fixed-rate loans would see an increase of over 40 per cent in repayments under a cash rate of 3.35 per cent, the bank’s end-of-year forecast.

If you are experiencing mortgage stress, the first thing you should do is make sure you’re on a great deal. It’s no secret that the best deals are often reserved for new customers, so if your lender won’t reduce your rate to the best in the market, it may pay to refinance.

To do this, add up all the costs of moving (including any fees to discharge your mortgage and any fees your new lender may charge) and divide this by your monthly savings.

If, for example, it costs you $1000 to move but you would save $50 a month in repayments, your break-even cost is 20 months, meaning it will take you just under two years to recoup the cost of moving.

If you are experiencing mortgage stress, be sure to discuss this with your lender.

There are several strategies that can help you claw back some of your mortgage-repayment increases. These include increasing your term, switching to interest-only repayments and requesting a pause. Each has pros and cons, so be sure to understand them.

Could we be at risk of a recession?

The technical definition of a recession is where you have two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Of course, there are recessions and then there are recessions – you could argue 2020 was a health recession, driven by lockdowns.

The RBA defines a recession as a sustained period of weak or negative growth in real GDP (output) that is accompanied by a significant rise in the unemployment rate.

We are certainly not experiencing a rise in unemployment. In fact, our economy is quite strong.

Certainly, after the strong post-pandemic economic recovery, there is a greater chance of a recession, but most economists are saying no.

The challenge for the RBA is not to overshoot on rate hikes. If it moves them too aggressively, it could have a huge impact on the economy. Too softly, and inflation will remain sticky.

The information provided in this column is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. The information has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information in this column, you should consider the appropriateness of the information for your own objectives, financial situation and needs.

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